PolMeth Europe 2021

PolMeth is (finally) coming to Europe.

You can still register for the PolMeth Europe Meeting between March 17th and March 19th 2021, hosted online by the University of Hamburg. There are no fees for the inaugural PolMeth Europe Meeting. Please note that you will need the email address you register with to access the virtual conference space. If you are already registered you can directly join the virtual PolMeth Europe meeting below.

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Program for the first PolMeth Europe conference

We are excited to present the program for the first PolMeth Europe meeting! (All times are CET.)

If you want to join any of the sessions please register for the conference and we will send you information on how to join the sessions.

Wednesday, 17 March 2021 Thursday, 18 March 2021 Friday, 19 March 2021
12:30-13:00 Welcome Address Vera Troeger and Short Intro to gather.town(Room: Keynote) Hang-out in Gather-Town Hang-out in Gather-Town
13:00-14:30 Parallel sessions Parallel sessions Parallel sessions
Good Advice(Panel 1) Modelling Categorical Data(Panel 2) Causal Inference I(Panel 1) Text as Data(Panel 2) More Good Advice(Panel 1) Qualitative Methods(Panel 2)
Taking Distributions Seriously: Interpreting the Effects of Constitutive Variables in Nonlinear Models with InteractionsMert Moral, Evgeny Sedashov, Andrei Zhirnov Much About Ado Not Very Much? Clarifying the Confusion about Models for Categorical Dependent VariablesMartin Elff Causal Inference with Latent VariablesLukas Stoetzer, Xiang Zhou, Marco R. Steenbergen Mining Narratives from Large Text CorporaElliott Ash, Germain Gauthier, Philine Widmer Cost-Effectiveness and Sample Bias in Recruitment using Facebook paid advertisementsAnja Neundorf, Aykut Öztürk Combinational Regularity Analysis (CORA): A New Method for Uncovering Complex CausationAlrik Thiem, Lusine Mkrtchyan, Zuzana Sebechlebska
Simulating Quantities of Interest when the Dependent Variable is loggedThomas Gschwend, Marcel Neunhoeffer, Oliver Rittmann Local Identification of Unobserved Heterogeneity in Quantitative Analyses of Strategic Sequential ChoicesXiao Lu, Thomas König Estimating a Counter-Factual with Uncertainty Through Gaussian Process ProjectionDavid Carlson, Devin Patrick Brown The value of implementing complex NLP models in political analysis. An elaborative cross-country approachAnnika Fredén, Moa Johansson, Pasko Kisic Merino, Denitsa Saynova When (not) to trust the overlap in confidence intervals: A practical guideDenis Cohen Bayesian Nested AnalysisLion Behrens, Ingo Rohlfing
Disccusant: Andreas Murr Discussant: Lukas Stoetzer Discussants: Dominik Hangartner & Marcel Neunhoeffer Discussant: Theresa Gessler Discussant: Thomas Gschwend Chair: Lukas Stoetzer
14:30-15:30 Poster Session I Poster Session II Female Network MeetingRegistration required, mail Sabrina
15:30-17:00 Parallel sessions Parallel sessions Parallel sessions
Measurement in Applied Fields(Panel 1) Spatial and Temporal Dependencies(Panel 2) Digital Data(Panel 1) Causal Inference II(Panel 2) Experiments in Migration Research(Panel 1) Replication & Sensitive Data(Panel 2)
Local Ownership of IFI Conditionality Programs: Conceptualization, Measurement, and ValidationNikitas Konstantinidis, Bernhard Reinsberg Eigenvector-Based Semiparametric Filtering of Spatial Autocorrelation in Regression ModelsSebastian Juhl Legislative Communication and Power: Measuring Leadership from Social Media DataDaniel Ebanks, Sanmay Das, Hao Yan, R. Michael Alvarez, Betsy Sinclair Retrospective causal inference via matrix completion, with an evaluation of the effect of European integration on labour market outcomesJason Poulos, Andrea Albanese, Andrea Mercatanti, Fan Li Humanitarian Concerns and Acceptance of Syrian Refugees in Turkey: A Conjoint ExperimentAnna Getmansky, Konstantinos Matakos, Tolga Sinmazdemir Beyond Replication: Secondary Qualitative Data Analysis in Political Science Florian Kern, Katariina Mustasilta
Let them eat pie: addressing the partial contestation problem in multiparty electoral contestsAli Kagalwala, Thiago M.Q. Moreira, Guy Whitten Picture Perfect: Visualizing Statistical and Substantive Significance of ARCH and GARCH ModelsAllyson Benton, Soren Jordan, Andrew Philips Using Wikipedia as Data and Platform for Political ResearchTheresa Gessler Profiling Compliers and Non-compliers for Instrumental-Variable AnalysisMoritz Marbach, Dominik Hangartner Migrants and Winning Votes: Evidence from an Anti-Exploitation Campaign in the Italian FieldsGemma Dipoppa Reproducible Privacy: Using Differential Privacy to Share Sensitive Research DataSuso Baleato, James Honaker, Mercè Crosas
Discussant: Marco Steenbergen Discussant: Vera Troeger Discussant: Simon Munzert Discussant: Max Goplerud Discussant: Sabrina Mayer Discussant: Christian Arnold
17:00-17:15 Coffee break Coffee break Farewell address and award ceremony(Room: Keynote)
17:15-18:15 Keynote Keynote Social Events in the Gather-Town Pub
Frauke KreuterDigital Trace Data: Collection, Applications, and Errors Neal Beck 50 Years of Political Methodology and Some Suggestions for the Near Future: A Somewhat Personal View

Poster Sessions

Poster Session I Poster Session II
Discovering Treatment Heterogeneity in Conjoint ExperimentsMartin Lukac, Alberto Stefanelli Utilizing semi-supervised machine learning and a shared semantic space to annotate multidimensional concepts in Political ScienceDror K. Markus, Guy Mor, Vered Porzycki, Alon Zoizner, Effi Levi, Avishai Green, Tamir Sheafer and Shaul R. Shenhav
Do Citizens Believe in Electoral Competitiveness under Competitive Authoritarianism? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in TurkeyPaula Jöst, Ioannis Vergioglou, Marc S. Jacob Burning the Preelection Oil—Environmental Political Business Cycles in VietnamFranziska Quoß, Quynh Nguyen
Sensitivity Analysis to Sample Selection BiasOliver Rittmann The Long Term Effects of War Participation on Political Attitudes: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and the Yom Kippur WarChagai Weiss, Anna Getmansky
Cross-lingual supervised classification of political textsHauke Licht The Divided (But Not More Predictable) Electorate: A Machine Learning Analysis of Voting in American Presidential ElectionsSeo-young Silvia Kim, Jan Zilinsky
Measuring Political Elite Networks with WikidataOmer Yalcin Bureaucrats, Politicians, and the Strategic Use of InformationLuca Bellodi
Modeling State Legislator Networks on TwitterIshita Gopal, Taegyoon Kim, Nitheesha Nakka, Bruce Desmarais Judicial Politics in Consumer BankruptcyDavid Cai
Click, click boom: Using Wikipedia metadata to predict changes in battle-related deathsChristian Oswald, Daniel Ohrenhofer Lessons from Practice: Ideological Scaling of German Parliamentary DebatesDana S. Atzpodien
Bad News for Democracy? Browsing Behavior Can Signal Political AttitudesNora Kirkizh, Roberto Ulloa, Sebastian Stier, Jürgen Pfeffer Precision in Survey Experiments -- A New Method to Improve Blocking on Ordinal VariablesSimon Heuberger
Estimating Historical Election Results under Counterfactual Electoral SystemsSamuel Baltz A Bayesian Method for Evidence Synthesis in Political ScienceLion Behrens, Simon Ellerbrock, Rebecca Kuiper
The new 'Eurlex dataset' of 148.000+ EU legal acts and an illustrative use caseCamille Borrett, Moritz Laurer
Just How Local Is Your Local Average Treatment Effect? Assessing the External Validity of Instrumental Variable Estimates.Alice Iannantuoni
Machine Learning for Time-Series Cross-Section DataDavid Broska, Julian Garritzmann Kilian Seng

Mission Statement

We are eager to facilitate an exciting and productive conference that is at the same time also an enjoyable social event. At a conference we expose our new ideas to a larger audience of colleagues which is always a leap of faith. As organisers of the conference, we formulated a mission statement that reflects our values and summarises the spirit of the event we imagine.

We appreciate the contribution of each participant and are curious about what they are proposing. Our comments intend to help improve their work. In offering feedback, we are mindful that we all have different personal backgrounds and different academic upbringings. We consider our diversity to be one of our core assets. Our different viewpoints ultimately help further our joint goal: better science.

Key Facts

1 Papers and Poster Presentations

The format of the panels will be as follows:

  • Two paper presentations (max. 20mins)
  • Comments from a distinguished scholar (10mins)

The format of the posters will be as follows:

  • Please condense all you have on one single page of small written Power Point.
  • Convert your power point into a .pdf.

2 The Conference Venue

We will meet for the conference on gather.town.

IMPORTANT: You will need an access code to enter the conference venue. Please make sure to register above so that we can reach out to you with the necessary details.

Gather.town is a tool for getting to both explore and chat with other people.

What you need:

  • A desktop/laptop with a mic and camera.
  • A web browser (Chrome or Firefox recommended). We strongly recommend using headphones to help prevent feedback.

How it works:

  • Gather is a video chat platform that has avatars move around a map. As you get close to other avatars, your videos will pop up and you will be able to chat.
  • Move around the space using the arrow keys.
  • By moving your avatar around you can have spontaneous conversations with those around you. These can be either one-on-one or small groups depending on how many people are around your avatar.
  • When your avatar moves closer to an interactable object, it will glow yellow and there will be a notification that shows up saying ‘Press x to interact with -object-’. This can range from informational flyers to integrated Zoom meetings, and more!

Our conference venue will be live from Wednesday March 17th in case you want to try it out a little earlier.

For the panels themselves we will use Zoom. You will be able to access the Zoom panels via gather.town.

One year into the pandemic, the Zoom netiquette is certainly all too familiar for us.

  • Please switch on the camera if you can.
  • Please switch off the microphone when joining the meeting and whenever you are not talking.
  • Please raise your hand when you want to talk. You can also use the chatbox if you prefer.

3 Social Events During PolMeth Europe

To further the community building, we also envisioned social events during the conference.


A lot of us have papers on which we already worked for maybe already a couple of weeks or even months. At one point, however, the project came to an end. Not because it was particularly bad, but more important things came along that crowded out our attention for the project. A considerable time already went into this research project, which means there are sunk costs. It is a pity that these papers are dormant in our drawers. What if someone came along who thinks that this project is worth a fresh look and would help you realise it?

At PolMeth, we want to create a market where people can meet to unearth the sunk costs in these projects. We want match those who have a project with those who might have an interest in restarting it. In our virtual conference space, there will be a large poster where you can post your paper projects. Other participants can read the abstracts and signal interest in a particular project. That way, the original author knows whether there is any interest from others to follow up and can decide to reach out to potential co-authors to keep working on things.

In case you are interested to participate, please send us via email the abstract of your dormant paper that you have already been working on until March 12th. We will then add it to the mural with the paper proposals.

We are keen to see this initiative at work and are looking for a dedicated group of peers to take this idea even further. Why not establishing such a paper market place at a larger scale? If you want to discuss how to develop this market place, meet me (Chris Arnold) anywhere in the conference space.

Feedback Murals

At a first conference of what has to ambition of becoming one of many, feedback is crucial to adapt the format to the need of participants. Does the workshop meet all expectations? What worked well? Where is room for improvement?

In addition, researchers also very often have good ideas about things that would be awesome to do or engage in beyond just the academic event. Think of all kind of infrastructures, platforms, discussions, software, data et cetera that such a PolMeth Europe community could create and benefit from. We want to give a space to all these ideas that might be in the back of your mind. Please find a virtual mural at the central plaza on gather.town where you can leave your feedback.

Social Events on Gather.Town

The platform itself is a great place to socialise. Always feel free to hang out there before and after the main events. We are also planning a special event on Friday evening once all panels are over.

Organising Committee

  • Christian Arnold (Cardiff University)
  • Sabrina J. Mayer (DeZIM Institute)
  • Simon Munzert (Hertie School)
  • Andreas Murr (Warwick University)
  • Marcel Neunhoeffer (University of Mannheim)
  • Lukas Stoetzer (Humboldt University of Berlin)
  • Richard Traunmüller (University of Mannheim)
  • Vera Troeger (University of Hamburg)
  • Christiane Westendorf (University of Hamburg)

Key Dates


Proposal Deadline

Fri, 18 Dec 2020
The deadline to submit proposals was Fri, 18 Dec 2020.

Application Decisions

Sat, 19 Dec 2020 - Sun, 31 Jan 2021
Notifications will be emailed to all applicants the end of January 2021.


Sun, 31 Jan 2021 - Fri, 26 Feb 2021 Online
The deadline for (author/discussant) registrations is Fri, 26 Feb 2021. Other participants can register until 16 Mar 2021.

Preliminary Program Posted

Fri, 19 Feb 2021
The preliminary program will be posted on this website.


Wed, 17 Mar 2021 - Fri, 19 Mar 2021 Online